NFL Draft: The jump to the NFL
Are some NCAA conferences less
likely to produce star players?
This post is partially in response to a discussion on my where the term bias was brought up
I personally have a bias against Pac-10 backs, I’ve ssen too many come and go without making a mark in the pros. I also know someone with a serious Big 10 bias.
So, the question is, which NCAA conferences produce big-time skill players, or fantasy all-stars, in the NFL.
Following is analytical proof that the Big 10 and Conference USA can sit at the same table with the more highly regarded boys from the ACC and the SEC.
This started with a discussion about who would be better, former Oklahoma receiver Malcolm Kelly (right) or Michigan State receiver Devin Thomas. Jay-Mo’s response was that Oklahoma’s players translate better to the NFL. I would argue that Michigan State players make better pros at the skill positions.
What follows is the result of some research on NFL.com. Using the NFL’s top five statistical passing, rushing and receiving leaders over the past 10 years as the subjects, each NCAA conference got a vote for each player in the top five dating back to 1997.
The facts are cool, and probably disturbing for some. ACC, SEC, Big 10 are the top three overall over the course of 10 years. Since 2002, the Big 10 is second only to the ACC. The Big 10 is a legitimate skill players conference. The Big 12 ranks eighth and the Pac-10 ranks fifth.
NFL leaders by NCAA conference
| Conference | 2005-07 | 2002-04 | 1999-01 | 97-98 | Since 02 | Since 97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 28 |
| SEC | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 25 |
| Big 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| C-USA | 3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| Pac 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| Big East | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| MntWest | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| Big 12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| SWAC | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Indepen | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
P.S. – A thanks to Jay-Mo for providing the idea for this post, and for a very good (intelligent) sports conversation (argument).
Are some NCAA conferences less
likely to produce star players?
I say Yes, for the most part … and unfortunately, I believe The Big Ten is one of those conferences fantasy football owners should shy away from when making tie-breaking decisions regarding who to draft, pick up and lean on to make an impact on their weekly match up and seasons.
Of course, a stud player is a stud player regardless of what conference, team or schedule they play. A perfect case in point this coming year is Rashard Mendenhall, who should fit seamlessly into Pittsburgh’s offense and should get plenty of touches as the No. 2 option behind Willie Parker. And yes, Mendenhall played in The Big Ten. A closer look would reveal he consistently performed well over the past two years in conference and outside the conference, particularly in last year’s Rose Bowl, where Illinois had no business being on the same field as USC (running back haven! hee hee), but Mendenhall made a case that he could start in USC’s prolific backfield.
Where my reasoning comes into play, and a small disclaimer here is I’m not a fantasy expert or yearly champion but a solid fantasy player … I feel … so my ideas should warrant some merit, is when you’re faced with a toss up between players, go with the one who didn’t play in The Big Ten (i.e. Malcom Kelly over Devin Thomas or Ray Rice over Mike Hart).
Why, because The Big Ten gets more exposure nationally because of it’s ESPN contract and now it’s own network (proof itself that the conference feels it’s more prestigious than the others). It’s kind of like the Notre Dame effect in the 1960-1980 span. Experts, analysts and gurus see more of one player than another who plays in relative obscurity and believe their stats are more impressive. Obviously, smaller conferences and teams with less depth don’t compare to the Big Ten but the other BSC conferences surely do.
For some reason, 10 TDs in the Big Ten is better than 10 TDs in the Big East, ACC or Pac-10. Hence, many players but not all who come out of the Big Ten are overrated.
I will say the SEC gets a ton of bias from the media, maybe too much as well, but I believe we all agree those players tend to produce well for fantasy owners, a lot more so than Big Ten guys.
So which conferences produce big-time skill players, or fantasy all-pros, in the NFL?
Yes, the Big Ten has its share but not as many as the fantasy public is led to believe, such as the posted chart would indicate.
For one, it’s inaccurate to date the analysis back ten years, because Miami, Boston College and Virginia Tech joined the ACC in 2004. So, if any their alums were included in the Big East, I’m not sure it they were, that’s not relative to today since all three should be attributed to the ACC. If I was making my argument in 1997 or 1998, it may be different.
I guess it would be best to focus on 2002-07 range since that actually makes a better case for the Big Ten anyway with the second most studs (14). When you look closer, the Big Ten had only 9 different studs, since Tom Brady Trent Green, Plaxico Burress,and Larry Johnson were repeat leaders. Once a stud, always a stud, no need to remind fanatsy owners that Peyton Manning will be among the top five quarterbacks each year.
The other conferences also dropped in numbers, except the Big 12, and the ACC suffered the biggest dip going from 21 to 12 different studs. Maybe, the ACC gets more praise than it should in comparison to the Big Ten, but not’s my argument. I also don’t feel many people would say the ACC gets pumped up in the media and fantasy circles. Heck, it could be argued the ACC is considered one of the weakest conferences, especially when talk of the Bowl Season comes around. The Pac-10 had 6 different studs, SEC had 7, Big 12 had 5 and the Big East had 4, which shocked me since the big three Big East teams left in 2004. Pittsburgh itself had two studs, Curtis Martin and Larry Fitzgerald, which is very comparable to Penn State’s Kerry Collins and Larry Johnson. Go Pitt!
Although the Big Ten still has the second most studs, which sticks with the stat graph, but it also proves my point how inflated the Big Ten is always perceived. Going from 14 down to 9 looks less sexy and impressive. As it is to compare Big Ten’s lead over the other BCS conferences as 3-7-9 (in the chart) than it is to compare it’s true lead as 2-3-4-5, which is much closer and accurate. So the Big Ten isn’t as proflic as we are lead to believe, good … yes. Much more of a fanatasy pool over the others, I say not.
I also must appologize for the Michigan State ripping. I was not aware Mushin Muhammad and Derrick Mason were Spartans. It’s a shame Michigan State gets blasted for Charles Rodgers and not praised for Burress, Muhammad and Mason. I still have a feeling Devin Thomas is more like Rodgers and less like the three studs, as I feel Malcolm Kelly is more like Mark Clayton, possibly even better, than the Oklahoma WR busts. The argument doesn’t looked good in type, but that’s what is great about sports.
We can always revisit the stud chart in 2010!
I too look forward to the 2010 chart, will it be headlined by Peterson and McFadden? We’ll have to wait and see.
(Also, to be clear, I didn’t take into account that those teams moved back in 2004. The chart’s numbers are based on the schools’ current conferences.)
Good points, and lots of them, but the Big-10 produces fantasy studs dude — so does Miami and Florida — but you can’t discount a football conference just because their teams don’t put up gaudy numbers in defenseless leagues like the ACC and SEC.(Yatil Green, Peter Warrick and every Florida receiver ever benefitted from such things).
Michigan-Ohio State is never 55-35, that’s why 10 TDs in the Big 10 is considered a bigger accomplishment than 10 TDs in many other conferences. If you can squeeze out 10 TD’s in the Big 10 you have to be pretty good.
Call it more boring than a Pac-10 aerial shootout, but these teams play the closest NCAA football there is to the pro game, that’s why they do produce fantasy stars (And why the A.J. Hawks and Dan Conners get so much pub):
Muhammid, Burress, Mason, Brady, Grbac, Collins, LJ, Braylon Edwards, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Ted Ginn, Trent Green, Randle-El, Jurevicious, Engram, Drew Brees, Marion Barber, Laurence Maroney, Chris Chambers, Lee Evans, Ladell Betts, Toomer.
Those are all active players who at their best put up gaudy NFL fantasy numbers in recent years.
That list also doesn’t include guys like Santonio Holmes, Anthony Gonzalez, Bryant Johnson, Antonio Pittman, Pierre Thomas and Steve Breaston who haven’t been given the opportunity to shine yet.
And one more thing…
USC’s backfield is prolific only in college. Where’s Reggie Bush now? And the Titans must be sold on LenDale White, they picked RB Chris Johnson in the first round.
(I revel in the fact USC’s RBs are fail since Marcus Allen left 155 years ago).